Status of the Sea Level Part of the IPCC 1995 Scientific Assessment

Philip Woodworth
Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level

The end of this year (1995) will see the completion of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Second Scientific Assessment, the first complete assessment since the 1990 report. There will be 11 chapters in the 1995 report discussing radiative forcings, climate change etc. and chapter 7 will discuss past and potential future sea level changes.

Last year the IPCC requested a small team to begin work on chapter 7. This team is led by Dick Warrick (New Zealand) together with Hans Oerlemans (Netherlands), Christian Le Provost (France), Mark Meier (USA) and me (UK). Major input also comes from Tom Wigley (UK/US/Australia). Versions of the chapter were constructed and modified during three meetings in 1994 and via many emails and the version of December 1994 was widely circulated for comments.

The most recent meeting of the IPCC Working Group I, which is responsible for the Scientific Assessment, took place at Brighton, UK on 14-17 March. Again, changes were made to the chapter. What happens now is that all chapters go out to formal peer and country review in parallel during May/June 1995, with a further drafting session of lead authors in Asheville, USA in 25-28 July. If you would like to see the May versions, or check that you will be part of the peer and country reviews, you should consult whichever agency is resonsible for IPCC activities in your country, or email Bruce Callander at the IPCC Technical Support Unit (bacallander@email.meto.govt.uk).

After Asheville, there will be final modifications leading to the Fifth IPCC WG I Plenary meeting in Madrid 27-29 November. There is then a formal session of the whole IPCC at its Eleventh Session in Italy 11-15 December.

OK, so what are the main findings so far, I hear you ask? Well, it is not appropriate to go into detail here, it would be better to read the whole of chapter 7, and the other chapters, in May. If you are interested, make sure you are on the appropriate mailing lists.

Work is in progress to make some WG I information, such as newsletters and timetables, available over the WWW. The URL will be http://www.unep.ch. Note that there are no plans to make the full WG I reports or their drafts available this way.